A majority of aviation professionals does not expect airline safety to improve during the next five years.

This is the stark result of a survey conducted by Ascend Worldwide, a UK-based aviation consulting firm. According to the results of the survey of more than 140 aviation industry professionals – more than half of whom indicated that aviation safety is their direct responsibility – 56 percent feel that the level of airline safety will stay the same or worsen over the near to medium term. The survey was conducted in March and April 2008, and involved 142 respondents from around the globe, including the UK, the United States, Germany, Brazil, Australia, Hong Kong and the Gulf States.

“This is actually a more pessimistic outlook from the industry than might be expected,” said Paul Hayes, an Ascend director. “Particularly given the advances in safety standards we have witnessed over the past 50 years. However, we are seeing significant change in the industry, in particular with rapid expansion in Asia and the Middle East. This puts added pressure on everyone to maintain and improve safety standards.”

The aviation industry has been making steady improvements in its safety record since the end of World War II. Particularly with the advent of jets, engine reliability has improved dramatically over the piston era. The annual number of fatal accidents involving passengers has fallen consistently, and at present the average loss for the current decade is significantly below that of the 1990s. Last year, in its annual safety survey, Ascend revealed that in 2007 passenger fatalities fell by 20 percent from 2006. Moreover, the average number of fatal accidents since 2000 is 16, whereas in the 1990s the average was 24.

Ascend wanted to test whether industry insiders were confident that this trend would continue. The results indicate that there is little such confidence.

The Ascend survey also asked participating industry insiders from across the globe to identify the biggest barriers to further improvements in safety by ranking the importance of 10 potential threats. Causing the most concern was a “shortage of experienced personnel,” with an average score of 7.3. Respondents ranked “Fatigue/work practice” as the second highest threat.

Of these leading threats, it is of interest to note that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has no minimum standard for experience on the job and it has not established hours of work standards for mechanics or air traffic controllers. Thus, there is no regulatory barrier prohibiting mechanics from working back-to-back eight-hour shifts, and controllers continue to be assigned work shifts on a sliding schedule in which their circadian rhythm must constantly adjust.

Respondents were also asked to rank the key drivers for improving air safety. They cited “management accountability for safety” as the most critical, with an average score of 7. Second and third most important, respectively, were “improvements in ground and air traffic control technology” (score 6.6) and the “increased spread of best practices,” with a score of 6.4. Note that improved regulatory oversight is believed to have a relatively low payoff for safety.

Of interest, safety management systems (SMS), now in vogue as a means of insuring safety processes are in place at airlines, are a major vehicle for documenting “management accountability for safety.” SMS is not required but is encouraged by the FAA. (Hayes, e-mail This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it )