Apparently, the issues of controller staffing and runway safety are largely a matter of perception. To the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) these issues are tractable, well understood, and programs to mitigate any risks are well in hand. The message: trust us, send money. To others, the problems are not merely a matter of perception. They’re real. Herewith, the FAA view and two others. Decide for yourself which among these is the most credible:

The problems are under control:

From the FAA’s “Budget in Brief, Fiscal Year 2009,” dated February 2008 (p. 12):

“The request [of $14.6 billion] includes an increase of $11.3 million to hire and train sufficient air traffic controllers to achieve our hiring targets set in the 10-Year Strategy for the Air Traffic Controller Workforce. It also includes $800,000 for 30 new positions to support development of the Air Traffic Oversight office, which was formed in FY 2004 to improve the delivery of air traffic services, and maintains the staffing gains to our aviation safety workforce during FY 2007-2008. Total aviation safety staffing will reach 7,069 by the end of FY 2009.

“In response to the Office of Inspector General’s FY 2007 Aviation Safety Management Challenge, FAA will continue working to reduce the precursors of aircraft accidents, runway incursions and operational errors. To better map movements on the ground and in the air over airports and thus reduce the risk of runway incursions, the agency will deploy nine Airport Surface Detection Equipment Model X [ASDE-X] systems in FY 2009. In FY 2007, for the sixth year in a row, FAA met its target for decreasing serious runway incursions.”

The problems are worsening:

From Gerald Dillingham, Government Accountability Office (GAO), testimony of 13 February 2008 to House Aviation Subcommittee:

“Recent data indicate that runway incursions, which are precursors to aviation accidents, are growing. Although the number and rate of incursions declined after reaching a peak in fiscal year 2001 and remained relatively constant for the next 5 years, they show a recent upward trend. …

“FAA could take additional measures to improve runway safety … we recommended that FAA prepare a new national runway safety plan; address controller overtime and fatigue; and start a non-punitive, confidential, voluntary program for air traffic controllers to report safety risks … similar to a program that FAA has already established for pilots and others in the aviation community. … The agency agreed to consider our recommendations. …

“From fiscal years 2006 through 2007, the number and rate of incursions increased by 12 percent and nearly regained the 2001 peak.

“Additionally, data for the first quarter of fiscal year 2008 [Sept.-Dec. 2007] show that the number of incursions increased substantially after FAA began using a definition of incursions developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) … Using the ICAO definition, FAA is now counting some incidents that had been formerly classified as surface incident. During the first quarter of fiscal year 2008, using the ICAO definition, FAA counted 230 incursions. If FAA had continued to use its previous definition, it would have counted 94 incursions. According to an FAA official, by adopting the ICAO definition, FAA expects to report about 900 to 1,000 incursions this year. Fig. 2 shows the number and rate of incursions, by quarter, during fiscal year 2007 and during the first quarter of fiscal year 2008:

Figure A

Incursions, by Quarter, during Fiscal Year 2007 and the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2008

“Moreover, the number and rate of serious incursions – where collisions were narrowly or barely avoided – increased substantially during the first quarter of fiscal year 2008, compared to the same quarter in fiscal year 2007. During the first quarter of fiscal year 2008, 10 serious incursions occurred, compared to 2 serious incursions during the first quarter of fiscal year 2007.” (For Dillingham’s complete testimony, see www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-08-481T)

The problems are endemic to the FAA:

From Patrick Forrey, President, National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) testimony 13 February 2008 to House Aviation Subcommittee:

“NATCA has been trying to direct attention to the decreasing safety margins in our skies and on our runways for years. We are no longer alone.

“In the past few months, a host of independent federal watchdogs have joined the chorus in raising concerns about aviation safety.

“In November, the GAO issued a report that warned of ‘a high risk of a catastrophic runway collision’ occurring in the United States.

“In December, the Transportation Department’s Inspector General launched an investigation on the role that workplace conditions played in several close calls at FAA facilities in Illinois.

“And the NTSB [National Transportation Safety Board] recently added runway incursions and incidents caused by air traffic controller fatigue to the 2008 list of Most Wanted Aviation Safety Improvements. …

“The [FAA’s] response, however, was not to follow the NTSB Chairman’s recommendation to work with the controllers, but rather to create a working group that didn’t include NATCA. …

“[Because] each airport presents unique challenges which negate the usefulness of a broad universal solution, NATCA recommends the creation of a Runway Incursion Prevention Committee for each airport. These groups would be composed of the local stakeholders, including pilots, air traffic controllers, airport management, airport vehicle drivers, and the FAA.

“Second, NATCA recommends that controller staffing at our nation’s FAA facilities be adequately addressed. Today, there are 1,500 fewer fully-certified controllers than there were on 9/11 – leaving fewer eyes to watch more planes, and the result is increased controller fatigue. …

“The current rate of controller attrition is 6.2 per day, and the system can’t sustain that rate for much longer. …

“Mr. Chairman, NATCA is not alone in sounding the alarm on passenger safety. The NTSB and GAO have determined that the threat of controller fatigue is real.

“The increase in runway incursions is real, too. There have been 12 serious A and B runway incursions [the FAA classifies severity of incursion from A to D] in the first four months of FY 2008 compared to 3 during the same time frame last year.

“The warnings of the GAO, the IG, and the NTSB should not go unheeded.” (For Mr. Forrey’s written testimony, see www.natca.org/legislationcenter/Testimony2-13-09.msp)